SATOSHI'S WEEKLY BRIEF

Satoshi's Weekly Brief by Bitcoin Vibe Check
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Bitcoin opened this week at $65,710 and rose to $66,521 on Monday, before the Federal Reserve's June meeting reversed those gains. It trades at $64,176 on Sunday morning: 2.3% below Monday's opening and 0.5% above last week's close of $63,858. The week started with optimism and effectively ended where it began.

Last week's question was whether the first ETF inflow day in weeks marked a sustained reversal. The FOMC answered it: on 17 June, nine of 18 Federal Reserve officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, Chair Warsh removed all forward guidance, and ETF outflows returned the following day -- $90.7 million in net redemptions on 18 June. Long-term holders moved in the opposite direction, absorbing an estimated 125,000 BTC in June and taking long-term holder supply to approximately 79% of all circulating Bitcoin.

Hash rate stands at 945.8 EH/s, up 13.5% over 30 days. The next difficulty adjustment is due in approximately 932 blocks -- around 27 June -- and is tracking at +4.6%, the first upward move after the -8.6% and -10.1% drops that accompanied the May-June drawdown. Blocks are averaging 9.6 minutes: miners are back.

Mempool congestion is Low. Transactions confirm at 2 sat/vB for fast; 1 sat/vB otherwise. Block space is not in demand.

Block height is 954,652. At current block times, 95,348 blocks remain until the next halving at block 1,050,000 -- approximately 633 days. The current epoch is 54.6% complete.

Fear & Greed reads 23 today, up from 18 last week; the classification remains Extreme Fear. The Mayer Multiple is 0.836: price is 16.4% below the 200-day moving average of $76,769, a level historically associated with long-term holder accumulation rather than distribution.

BTC dominance is 55.7%, essentially flat on last week's 56.0%, suggesting recent price weakness has not prompted meaningful rotation out of Bitcoin into other assets.

Bitcoin trades at $64,176 on Sunday morning, with $63,000 the immediate level to watch on the downside. The FOMC decision this week -- nine of 18 Fed officials projecting a rate hike, forward guidance eliminated -- reset sentiment and renewed ETF outflows. Watch the live price on bitcoinvibecheck.com: a break below $63,000 reopens the path toward the $59,000-60,000 range Bitcoin recovered from two weeks ago.

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