SATOSHI'S WEEKLY BRIEF

Satoshi's Weekly Brief by Bitcoin Vibe Check
bitcoinvibecheck.com

Bitcoin opened the week below $60,000, touching its lowest level since early 2024, before recovering to $65,810 by Monday morning -- a gain of 8.3% from last week's close of $60,747.

The $60,000 level flagged in Issue 002 broke, as the outflow streak that had been pressuring price extended into this week. The reversal came on 12 June, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.85 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT: the first positive flow day after weeks of consecutive outflows totalling over $6 billion since mid-May. A US-brokered peace agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend cooled energy prices, reducing pressure on mining margins. The direction across price, institutional flows, and macro shifted simultaneously; whether that holds is the question for the coming week.

The -10.9% difficulty adjustment that was due this week has taken effect. Block times snapped back to 9.9 minutes almost immediately -- miners returned to the network faster than the adjustment alone would suggest. Network hash rate is 902.8 EH/s, still down 5.7% over 30 days, but the next adjustment in approximately 1,837 blocks (~13 days) is now tracking at +1.1% upward: a small but telling sign that hash power is coming back online.

Mempool congestion is Low. Fees range from 1 sat/vB for non-urgent transactions to 3 sat/vB for fast confirmation. No one is competing for block space.

Approximately 96,252 blocks remain until the next halving at block 1,050,000 -- around 668 days at current block times. The current epoch is 54% complete.

Fear & Greed has risen from 12 (Extreme Fear) last week to 20 (Extreme Fear) this week; the classification is unchanged, but the direction is positive. Readings in this range have historically coincided with long-term holder accumulation, though the index measures sentiment, not price direction.

BTC dominance is 56.1%, broadly flat on last week's 56.2%, confirming the selling this month was concentrated in Bitcoin rather than a broader rotation out of risk assets.

Bitcoin is at $65,810, recovering from its lows but still below the $68,000 level it broke through on the way down in early June. That level is the first meaningful test of whether this is a genuine recovery or a bounce into resistance. Watch the price on bitcoinvibecheck.com: a close above $68,000 would reclaim a key breakdown point; a rejection there keeps the structure bearish.

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